12/18/18

Morning Commentary - 12/18/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with corn, beans, and wheat all stuck in their recent range.
  • The big news yesterday was the announcement that the second MFP payment would be going through to bring the total for beans to 1.65.
  • New recent lows in crude this morning with the nearby dipping to the lowest levels since October 2017 will keep pressure on ethanol margins.  Poet is trying to change the way ethanol prices are set as the industry struggles with weak margins.
  • There is an FOMC meeting today with past meeting suggesting another rate hike will be announced tomorrow.  The President is trying to convince them to pump the brakes on any hikes. 
  • Overall a very slow news morning.
  • Corn technically remains range bound with support at 3.80 and resistance 3.85.  The gap from when December expired at 3.77 is a potential downside target as well.
  • Beans remain stuck in their range with support at 9.00 and resistance 9.20-9.30.
  • Wheat remains in a long-term uptrend with support at 5.25 and resistance 5.40.

 

WEATHER

  • Rains still working across Argentina to slow planting.
  • Brazil is drying out in central areas, but rains are coming.

 

OUTLOOK

  • The big news was the announcement of the MFP payment, which will make raising beans this year look much better.
  • Corn remains stuck in its range, but the funds have bought a lot without having been tested.  Look for the market to pull back to fill downside gaps and test the fund long.  Look for a grind higher over time as corn will need to buy acres.
  • Beans didn’t react to the MFP payment overnight, but I do think it could give producers the confidence to let some beans go, which would be a negative for the market in the near term.  Look for the market to pull back from here.
  • Wheat continues to hold in the long-term uptrend.  Look for pull-backs to continue to find buyers.

 

Fun Fact of the Day: The temperatures in the car during a Nascar race often exceed 100 degrees, reaching as much as 170 degrees on the floorboards. Due to this, drivers often lose 5-10 pounds in sweat during a race, but if the driver loses more than 3% of his body weight in sweat it can cause his reflexes to start declining.

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