10/23/18

Morning Bullet Points - 10/23/2018

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight in a choppy trade with weakness in equity markets around the globe likely putting some pressure on the grains.
  • Crop progress yesterday had bean harvest at 53% and corn harvest at 49%.  Bean harvest continues to run well behind average while corn is just ahead of average.
  • Winter wheat planting is 72% complete vs. 76% average.
  • South Korea is tendering for 140 mmt of corn on the global market.
  • Russian group IKAR raised their wheat production forecast to 70.5 mmt (USDA 70).
  • China imports of sorghum in September dropped 76.9% from year ago levels.  Their corn imports were down 83.4%.
  • Corn technically bounced off support yesterday and climbed above moving average resistance near 3.69.  The market found support at previous resistance in the 3.65-3.70 area, which I think keeps the upside breakout that started on the day of the October report in play.
  • Beans technically are stuck in their range with the market dipping below moving average support at 8.55 overnight.  The market is very oversold.
  • Wheat technically is testing support in the 5.00-5.10 area again.  Long-term uptrend is in place, but current price levels need to hold.

 

WEATHER

  • Rains are seen building in the Midwest later this week with more showers in the 6-10 and 11-15 periods.  That will slow harvest, although a lot of progress will be made before then.
  • South America has good rains continuing to hit Brazil while parts of southeast Argentina is trending dryer.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn found buyers to start the week at important support levels.  The tightening global supplies story is still very much in play, but we are in the middle of harvest with a lot of willing sellers above the market.  Longer term, I still feel good about higher prices, but the market may be stuck until we get through Nov. expiration on Friday.
  • Beans are struggling overnight as the US/China trade war intensifies and global equity markets are cratering.  With US holding record supplies of beans, the corn market will need to move higher to pull corn along.
  • Wheat is testing support in the 5.00-5.10 area.  The higher trend that started last winter is in place, but the market is flirting with breaking that support at the moment.

 

Fun Fact of the Day: Purdue football’s 49-20 victory over Ohio State is the third largest margin of victory of an unranked team over a top 2 football team.

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