10/4/18

Morning Bullet Points - 10/04/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading higher across the board this morning, catching a boost from weather concerns and strong export sales this morning.
  • Wheat sales came in at 435,300 MT (250-550), corn 1,431,100 MT (1,000-1,600), soybeans 1,521,200 MT (900-1,500).
  • Strong sales across the board.  Mexico was the best buyer of corn and soybeans.
  • Taiwan bought 65,000 MT of optional origin corn.
  • Egypt tendered for wheat after the close yesterday with Russia the cheapest offer.
  • Harvest reports continue to be good from an historical standpoint, but are starting to tail off somewhat.
  • USDA will update production on next week’s crop report on the 11th.
  • Corn technically continues to see some consolidation around 3.65 basis the Dec.  The trend is sideways with support at 3.65 and resistance at 3.75.
  • Soybeans technically remain stuck in their range with support at 8.60 and 8.30.  Resistance at 8.80.
  • Wheat technically remains in a long-term uptrend with support at 5.10 and resistance at 5.40 and 5.55.

 

WEATHER

  • Rains seen moving across the Midwest in 2 waves over the next 10 days with harvest delays and some harvest losses expected.
  • Brazil corn/soybean areas continue to be well watered as they put their crop in.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn pulled back from the highs yesterday, but has recovered most of yesterday’s losses overnight.  We had strong exports, but keep in mind that the market often fades export numbers.  The bigger picture story of tightening global supplies is still intact, so I want to be a buyer of corn on pullbacks.  I think there is potential to pull back this morning.
  • Soybeans traded similarly to corn yesterday and again overnight.  Exports were good, but again, the market often fades export sales.  Beans have relatively weaker fundamentals than corn, so if corn pulls back, look for beans to do the same.  I think beans can be used as the short leg in inter-market spreads.
  • Wheat traded the same as corn and beans.  It pulled back from highs yesterday, and then traded higher last night.  The market is holding near key support, so look for pullbacks to find buyers.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Scientists are planning to eliminate the tumbleweed from America because they mostly clutter farmland and start wildfires.

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