9/25/18

Morning Bullet Points - 09/25/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight in a pretty quiet trade.
  • Fresh comments overnight from Cargill CEO that China has no plans of backing down in the trade war as they seek to invest in agriculture outside of the US.
  • Russian grain exports reportedly slowing due to recent quality issues and a stronger Ruble.
  • More swine flu has been found in China.
  • Indonesia wheat flour imports are expected to grow to 8.5mmt, up from 8 last year.
  • Bangladesh is tendering for 50,000 MT of wheat.
  • Corn technically climbed again yesterday to settle above the 20 DMA for the first time since August.  We continue to trade in the lower end of the range we’ve seen since June with support at 3.57 and resistance 3.60.
  • Soybeans technically pulled back to support at their 20 DMA yesterday after putting in the bullish reversal yesterday.  Support below the market near 8.30 and resistance at 8.80.
  • Wheat technically is hitting resistance between the 20 and 200 DMA’s with support at 5.21 and resistance 5.55.  The long-term uptrend is in place.
  • USDA reported 239,600 MT of corn to Mexico for 2018/19.

 

WEATHER

  • Rains finish up in the ECB today, but it gets wet again for much of the Midwest later this week and through the end of the 11-15 period.  Harvest will be slowed, but it is early enough to not be much of a concern.
  • Rains expected to move across S. Brazil, which will help their early crops get started.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn started the week where it left off last week with good buyers stepping in.  Yields continue to be good, but that is old news.  We continue to see good demand with strong export inspections yesterday and another sale to Mexico on the daily report today.  We have seen the market rally 16 cents off its lows in 5 days, so some sort of a pullback is possible in here.  Longer term, tightening US and global corn supplies should be supportive and points to higher prices.
  • Beans pulled back Friday and Monday, but found some buyers overnight with moving average support holding.  The US/China trade situation is not improving, which is going to limit upside potential in the beans.  Look for beans to be the weak leg of the complex for the near future.
  • Wheat pulled back overnight as the market is a little overbought and trading near resistance.  There is still a lot of business being done around the world, and news that Russia prices are headed higher is supportive.  Look for pullbacks to be supported.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  An earthquake on December 16th, 1811 caused parts of the Mississippi River to flow backwards.

Want Updates?

Keep up with our market interpretation news and other important info. To receive text or email updates, simply click the button below and fill out the form.

Get Updates