9/19/18

Morning Bullet Points - 09/19/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading with small gains overnight with wheat the strongest leg again while corn/soybeans try to stabilize after another plunge to new lows yesterday.
  • Informa estimated corn and bean acres for next year with corn at 93 million (up 3.9m from last year) and soybeans 82.3m (down 7.3m).
  • Harvest across the Midwest rolls along with strong corn/bean yields being reported, leaving some to push national corn/soybean yield estimates higher.
  • Egypt bought wheat yesterday.
  • Syria bought 200,000 MT of Russian wheat.
  • Korea is tendering for 65,000 MT of corn.
  • Corn technically is trading at lows with the Sep. expiration level at 3.37 a next downside target.  Support at 3.40 and resistance 3.50 and 3.60.
  • Soybeans technically pushed to new lows yesterday, with next support at 9.00.  Resistance at 9.30.
  • Wheat technically remains in its longer-term uptrend with support at 5.00 and resistance 5.40.

 

WEATHER

  • Warm temperatures and rains over the next 10 days will slow harvest down across much of the Midwest.
  • Brazil corn/bean areas continue to catch enough rain to help early crops emerge.
  • Harvest delays this early are not a problem and SA is in good shape as well.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Nothing much new to say in the corn as the market continues to grind toward a harvest low.  Huge yields are limiting buying interest, although there were some sizable bids flashing in the market yesterday.  There is clearly some “throwing in the towel” going on, which typically means we could be close to a low.  Longer term, the tightness of global supplies will matter at some point, so this is a time to be patient with sales.
  • Beans continue to struggle to find buyers as the US/China trade issue remains unresolved and yields are big.  Until there is trade resolution or corn goes higher, beans do not have any reason to rally.
  • Wheat continues to be the strong leg with a lot of business being done around the world along lower revisions of crops around the world by everyone except the USDA.  Look for buyers to continue to step in on pullbacks.

 

Fun Fact of the Day: Americans consume over 100 million M&M’s every day.

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