9/6/18

Morning Bullet Points - 09/06/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with beans higher while corn/wheat trade lower.
  • Wheat under pressure again as all indications out of Russia are that there will be no export restrictions.
  • Russia won the most recent Egyptian business.
  • Harvest reports continue to be slow to roll in, but early results continue to run below many were hoping.
  • Informa is expected to be out this morning with national corn/soybean production estimates.
  • Corn technically is range-bound and sitting near the bottom of the range.  Support at 3.60 and 3.50.  Resistance comes in at 3.70 and 3.90.
  • Soybeans technically have a potential double bottom in place near 8.30 with support at 8.30 and resistance 8.80.
  • Wheat is trading near recent lows with support below 5.20 and resistance well above the market at 5.40 and 5.50.

 

WEATHER

  • A brief cool down is seen to end this week before well above normal temperatures return in the 6-10 and 11-15 period.
  • Dry weather over the next couple of weeks will allow harvest to start in most areas.

 

OUTLOOK

  • No major changes in the fundamental outlook for corn as harvest is slow to get going due to wet weather.  US and global supplies remain on pace to drop to historically tight levels but big US yields show weigh on prices in the interim.
  • Soybeans continue to hold above support near 8.30 with not much new from a fundamental standpoint.  Yield estimates continue to grow.  Supplies are forecast to be record large.  Beans will need a trade deal with China, which is probably a couple months off, or corn will need to pull the market higher.
  • Wheat continues to pull back to put pressure on speculative longs in the market.  The longer-term trend is still higher, and global supplies are going to be drawn down significantly year over year.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  In 1992, Bayer and Diaconis showed that after seven random riffle shuffles of a deck of 52 cards, every configuration is nearly equally likely. Shuffling more than this does not significantly increase the "randomness"; shuffle less than this and the deck is "far" from random.

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