7/24/18

Morning Bullet Points - 07/24/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading lower across the board overnight on a lack of threatening weather and better than expected corn/soybean ratings on the weekly crop progress report.
  • Corn ratings were left unchanged at 72% good-to-excellent vs. 62% last year, while beans improved 1% to 70% good-to-excellent.
  • Both the corn and soybean crops continue to run ahead of pace with early planting of beans pushing that crop forward while early season heat has pushed the corn.
  • Spring wheat ratings remain strong at 79% good-to-excellent.
  • Egypt tendered for wheat after the close yesterday.
  • UkrAgroConsult lowered their Ukraine wheat production and export forecast.  Production was lowered to 24.7 MMT (USDA 26.5).  Exports were lowered to 15.6 MMT (USDA 17).  They raised corn production to 27.3 MMT (USDA 30) and exports to 21 MMT (USDA 24).
  • Corn technically is pulling back overnight with moving average support in Dec. coming in at 3.65.  Resistance above the market at 3.87.
  • Soybeans technically hit their 20 DMA yesterday before pulling back.  Support for Nov. is at 8.50 and resistance 8.80.
  • Wheat technically is sitting at support near the top of the previous consolidation area.  Support is at 5.05 and resistance 5.55.

 

WEATHER

  • Below normal temperatures seen for the next 10 days before normal temps return in the 11-15.  The rest of the growing season looks to be void of damaging heat for now.
  • Scattered showers are seen across the Midwest for the next couple of weeks.
  • Ukraine corn expected to catch rains this week.
  • European corn areas return to warmer/drier for the next two weeks.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn had seen a pretty good bounce off the lows but pulled back on the better crop ratings and a market that had absorbed a lot of buying over the last few sessions.  I still believe a low has been put in place, as the fundamentals moving forward are supportive, so the current pullback can be viewed as a buying opportunity.
  • Soybeans sputtered at their 20 DMA resistance yesterday.  As has been touched on a lot, soybeans do not have as good of an outlook as corn, so the pullback in corn is probably going to put the brakes on any additional upside in the beans.
  • Wheat broke out to the upside on Friday, pulled back yesterday, and then pulled back again overnight.  We need to see buyers to step in here to support or we are headed back to the bottom of the range.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Despite its name, Worcestershire sauce was originally an Indian recipe, brought back to Britain by Lord Marcus Sandys, ex-Governor of Bengal. One day in 1835, Sandys appeared in a prospering chemist's emporium in Worcestershire, England, and asked the chemist to create a batch of sauce from his recipe.

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