7/18/18

Morning Bullet Points - 07/18/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading higher overnight with corn, soybeans, and wheat all seeing follow through after yesterday’s gains.
  • The German Farm Assn. is the latest to cut German wheat crops, saying they could not put a number out, but it would be down significantly from a year ago.
  • China summer grain production seen dropping 2.2% from a year ago.
  • Corn technically is seeing some follow-through buying after last week’s reversal.  The trend is lower, but trend resistance levels are being tested currently.  Support below the Dec. at 3.55 and resistance 3.66.
  • Soybeans technically are bouncing from oversold conditions with another 20 cents upside before major resistance is seen at 8.80 Nov.  Support at 8.30.
  • Wheat technically is trying to reassert the higher trend with the market pushing back above 5.00 overnight.  Support at 4.95 and resistance 5.10.
  • USDA reported 199,000 MT of soybeans to Pakistan for the 2018/19 marketing year on the daily report.

 

WEATHER

  • Cooler temperatures move in during the 6-10 period and linger into the 11-15.
  • Scattered rains are forecasted across the Midwest for the next couple of weeks.
  • Russia is starting to catch rains at the wrong time.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn continues to grind higher as it is looking more and more like the reversal from last week may hold.  The estimates for national yield that were being thrown around on the lows were getting pretty ridiculous so the theme of the markets seeing the most bearish news when lows are made is possible.  Regardless, the global grain supply situation is tightening, and the corn market is still near the bottom of the long-term trading range.  Look for pullbacks to find buyers as prices have potential upside moving forward.
  • Soybeans continue to bounce from oversold conditions.  Soybeans do not have the story that corn does, but if corn is to move higher, soybeans will probably follow along.  8.80 looks like a resistance level that Nov. could make a run at in the near term.
  • Wheat got another round of bullish news with lower production in Germany.  Russia was already looking at a short drought-impacted crop, and now the forecast is getting wet just as they should be ramping up harvest.  Look for wheat to find buyers on pullbacks.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Picasso’s total pieces of artworks are estimated to be at 50,000, comprising 1,885 paintings; 1,228 sculptures; 2,880 ceramics, roughly 12,000 drawings, many thousands of prints, and numerous tapestries and rugs.

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