7/5/18

Morning Bullet Points - 07/05/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • No overnight trade due to the Independence Day Holiday.
  • Export sales will be out tomorrow morning at 7:30am CST.
  • Trump tweets over the last few days calling for lower oil prices not having a limited impact on prices with crude sitting at the highest levels in a few years.
  • UN FAO forecast world cereal output down 2.4% year-on-year.
  • China tariffs on US corn, soybeans, and wheat set to take effect tomorrow with China saying yesterday they would not enact their tariffs until the US has “fired the first shot”.
  • Corn is still in its downtrend, however, there is potential to see a double bottom at the lows from two weeks ago and Monday.  Support for Sep. is at 3.50 and resistance 3.75.
  • Soybeans technically remain in their downtrend, but a potential double bottom could be seen there too.  Support for Nov. at 8.60 and 8.30 while resistance comes in at 8.80.
  • Wheat technically is at the middle of its recent range with 4.80 support holding again earlier this week.  The base from last winter is still in place with support at 4.80 and resistance 4.97 and 5.10.
  • USDA reported 137,000 MT of corn to South Korea for the 2018/19 marketing year.

 

WEATHER

  • Scattered showers seen across the Midwest for the next couple of weeks.  No general soaker expected, but most areas are well watered.
  • Temperatures cool later this week, but above normal temperatures return to much of the Midwest for the 6-10 period.  The 11-15 turns back to more normal temperatures.
  • Most of Russia is dry over the next couple of weeks while Ukraine has been catching rains.

 

OUTLOOK

  • It will be an interesting few days to see how the markets trade the July 6th tariff deadline.
  • A lot of bearish news has been thrown at the corn market.  Trade uncertainty, historically strong crop ratings, bigger than expected acres on the June report, lots of rain, and bigger than expected quarterly stocks.  The market has tumbled with Dec. corn trading near contract lows.  We may have more downside with 3.30 in the nearby (12 cents below the market) providing major support.  The bigger picture outlook still seems ok, in my opinion, as even with all the above, global corn supplies are still set to drop to unsustainably tight levels.  Be patient with sales.
  • Soybeans have seen the biggest move to the downside as they have the most to lose in the trade war.  Even without the trade war, their fundamental outlook is not as good as corn.  If corn can stabilize and trade higher from here, beans will likely follow along as we are way overdue for some sort of a bounce.
  • Wheat is starting to see some buying related to Russian and EU crop problems.  Technically the wheat looks ok with a base in place from last winter.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  The Guinness Book of World Records refuses to validate any attempt at breaking the world record for the longest time spent awake, believing that it's dangerous to human health.

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