6/29/18

Morning Bullet Points - 06/29/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading higher overnight as the late sell-off yesterday seemed to be last minute puking ahead of first notice day as well as today’s acres and stocks report at 11am CST.
  • Corn acres expected to be up 500,000 to 600,000.  Soybean acres expected to increase by 700,000.
  • Stats Canada out this morning with wheat acres 24.7 million (up 10.4% from last year).  Canola acres were 22.7 million (down 1.1% from last year).
  • Hog and pig report out yesterday showed hogs and kept for breeding both higher than expected.
  • Corn technically in its lower trend with stochastics oversold.  Sep. support at 3.55 and resistance 3.75.
  • Soybeans technically in a lower trend with support for Nov. at 8.80 and resistance 9.00.
  • Wheat technically trading mid-range with Sep. support at 4.80 and resistance 5.00.
  • USDA reported 130,000 MT of soybeans to Mexico for 2018/19 on the daily report.

 

WEATHER

  • Scattered rains still seen moving across the Midwest over the next couple of weeks, although no widespread event expected.
  • Well above normal temperatures are setting in and expected to linger over the next couple of weeks.
  • Russia stays hot/dry for the next week or so.
  • Ukraine weather improving.

 

OUTLOOK

  • The corn settled at a new low, which to me looked to be related to selling ahead of first notice day as well as jumping out of longs ahead of the crop report today.  Anything less than a 1m million acre increase in corn acres will be viewed as somewhat supportive considering the break we’ve had and the hot temp outlook.  We will see what they say at 11am, but I still believe the market is set up to trade higher because of shrinking global corn supplies.
  • Soybeans also collapsed yesterday, which I also think was related to selling ahead of the report and first notice day (today).  I think the potential for a jump in soybean acres today is real, which the market has done a good job of pricing in.  Regardless, for soybeans to stabilize and find a near term low, corn probably needs to stabilize.
  • Wheat has been the best performer with little reaction to the “bearish” stats Canada numbers this morning. 

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Oranges, eggplants, grapes and bananas are berries; strawberries, raspberries and blackberries are not.

Want Updates?

Keep up with our market interpretation news and other important info. To receive text or email updates, simply click the button below and fill out the form.

Get Updates