6/26/18

Morning Bullet Points - 06/26/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading higher overnight, recovering a small portion of the losses to start the week.  But getting sold aggressively out of the gates here at 8:30am.
  • All eyes on the weather and report at the end of the week that is expected to show an increase in both corn and soybean acres.
  • China announced they would cut tariffs on feed imports from 5 Asian countries.
  • Ratings yesterday showed soybeans unchanged while corn was down 1% good-to-excellent to 77%.
  • South Korea tendered for corn overnight.
  • Fund selling was a feature yesterday with managed funds holding net short positions as we head into the key portion of the US growing season.
  • Corn technically is in downtrend with support at last week’s lows needing to hold.  July support at 3.50 and resistance at 3.55.
  • Soybeans technically sitting at resistance near 8.80 and support near 8.50.  The trend is lower for now with last week’s lows needing to hold.
  • Wheat technically is in a downtrend with support near last week’s lows 4.80ish.  Resistance in the mid-4.90’s, where we are trading this morning.

 

WEATHER

  • The Midwest is expected to see scattered showers over the next couple of weeks, which will keep the crop well-watered from a national standpoint.
  • Temperatures move to above normal later in the week while the 6-10 is a little cooler on today’s forecast.  Heat returns in the 11-15 period.
  • Russia remains hot with limited chances for rains.
  • Ukraine is catching rains.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn posted a new low settlement price yesterday with all the focus on US trade relations and strong crop ratings.  With some key producing areas seeing excess rains, I think we have probably seen our highest ratings of the summer (although they remain very high).  Going back to the March crop report, the reasons for being friendly corn were not based on weather concerns, but the fact that acres were too low.  We will get an update from the USDA on Friday, but unless the acre number is shockingly high, I think the longer-term outlook for corn is positive.
  • Soybeans also posted a new low close for the recent move, probing into the middle of last week’s range.  Soybeans don’t have as good of an outlook as corn, so unless corn starts to trade higher again, beans will probably struggle.
  • Wheat still looks to have put a base in last winter.  Look for pullbacks to be supported here.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  New Zealand was the first country to allow women to vote (in 1893), while the King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia granted women the right to vote in 2011.

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