6/14/18

Morning Bullet Points - 06/14/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading lower overnight led by weakness in the corn that is reverting to liquidation mode.
  • Export sales out this morning for wheat 302,300 MT (150-450 expected), old crop corn 936,400 MT (600-900), new crop corn 240,200 MT (200-400), old crop soybeans 519,600 MT (100-400), new crop soybeans 291,000 MT (100-400).
  • Pretty strong old crop corn sales, better than expected old crop soybeans, although nothing too impressive, and everything else pretty much as expected.
  • Tariff headlines hit the market yesterday with talk that the US would implement Chinese tariffs this week.
  • Fund selling continues to be a feature in the corn/beans with the managed fund long in both essentially flattened out.
  • Corn technically is in a short-term downtrend, but is very oversold.
  • Soybeans technically are in a downtrend, but are also oversold.
  • Wheat remains in its uptrend, but are flirting with reversing that.

 

WEATHER

  • Well above normal temperatures still seen over the next 5 days before some cooling is seen in the 6-10 and 11-15.
  • Spotty rains across the Midwest the next couple of weeks should keep things in good shape from a national standpoint.
  • Russia/Ukraine still has parts of Ukraine catching rain while Russia is dry for the next couple of weeks.

 

OUTLOOK

  • The focus continues to be on the lack of growing problems in the US as the market is on a mission to push out all the speculative length.  The bigger picture outlook still suggests we can work higher over time, but it is hard to say when the liquidation will be over.
  • Soybeans have been the weakest leg as of late as they have the relatively worst fundamentals moving forward.  Until corn stabilizes, beans probably will struggle.
  • Wheat looks to be potentially rolling over as it is testing support at the bottom of the recent up channel.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  The human sigh acts as a “reset button” for our respiratory system.

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