6/5/18

Morning Bullet Points - 06/05/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets recovering some of yesterday’s losses overnight with wheat seeing the best buying.
  • Corn is up 2 cents, soybeans down 1 cents, and wheat up 13 cents.
  • Crop progress yesterday came in as expected with corn ratings still historically high, soybean ratings off to a good start, spring wheat ratings very strong, while winter wheat ratings remain historically low.
  • Mexico announced new tariffs on US pork imports in retaliation to US moves.
  • Corn technically broke support at the bottom of its uptrend, with the market probing support in the 3.75-3.80 area.  The 200 DMA (day moving average) comes in a 3.83, which the market traded back above overnight.  No major resistance is seen until the mid-3.90’s.
  • Soybeans technically pushed to the bottom of the range with November filling the gap that was left a couple weeks ago and bouncing.  Downside technical objectives have been met, so I think a bounce from here is possible.  November resistance comes in at 10.60.
  • Wheat technically are still holding in their up-trend with support at 5.00 while resistance comes in at 5.15 and 5.55.
  • No sales on the daily report.

 

WEATHER

  • Above normal temperatures seen across the US until the end of the 10-day period.
  • Spotty showers also seen across the Midwest for the next couple of weeks.
  • Overall, no major problems in the US for now.
  • Russian wheat areas remain dry while Ukraine is expected to catch some rains.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn has done a good job of pushing speculative length out the last week with US trade uncertainty and strong crop ratings the catalyst for the selling.  However, when you take a step back and look at world supply and demand, we still have a very bullish situation developing.  I guess it is possible that we set back further as there is still plenty of speculative length in the market with futures potentially on the verge of a bigger move to the upside, but I still believe the outlook for higher prices is valid.  Producers that have good sales on the books should re-own them now.
  • Soybeans filled the gap that was left below the Nov. contract while remaining within their range.  A lot of speculative length has been pushed out, so I think we can start to see prices recover.  Soybeans do not have as good of potential as corn, but I don’t think beans will sit where they are currently trading if corn is going to rally.
  • Wheat still looks good technically with moving average support from 4.90 to 5.00 supporting the market.  Look for pullbacks to find buyers.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  In the UK, there is no fine for jaywalking, but the rate of pedestrian deaths is half that of the US.

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