6/1/18

Morning Bullet Points - 06/01/2018

HAPPY FRIDAY—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with corn/soybeans higher and spreaders selling wheat.
  • Weekly export sales this morning came out with old crop wheat 29,500 MT (-100-100 expected), new crop wheat 270,900 MT (150-450), old crop corn 993,100 MT (700-1,000), new crop corn 149,300 MT (150-350), old crop soybeans 273,400 MT (300-600), new crop soybeans 771,600 MT (350-750
  • Nothing too market moving in those numbers.
  • Argentine bean yields continue to disappoint as harvest rolls along there.
  • CFTC report this afternoon expected to show net buying in corn, beans, and wheat as the big pullbacks this week took place after numbers were calculated on Tuesday.
  • First day of the month and it remains to be seen if that means new money will flow into ag commodities.  Crude and gold are both trading lower to start.
  • Corn technically remains in its longer-term up-trend, but is testing support at the bottom of the channel.  Support for July near 3.90 and resistance at 4.00 and 4.10.
  • Soybeans technically remain stuck in their range with Nov. finding support near 10.30 and resistance 10.60.
  • Wheat technically remains in its longer-term uptrend with support near 5.15 and resistance 5.55.

 

WEATHER

  • Above normal temperatures expected to settle in across pretty much the entire Midwest for the next couple of weeks.
  • Rains are expected to be spotty and probably enough at this point to keep the crops ok from a national standpoint.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn pulled back to finish the month of May, but the overall outlook remains unchanged.  Corn acres in the US are too low.  The crop is off to a strong start, but the outlook for warm temperatures could lead to some buying interest.  Regardless, I look for prices to work higher over time.
  • Beans are finding support near the bottom of their range and looking to corn for direction.  Since I look for corn to work higher over time, I think there is a good chance beans will eventually break out of their range to the upside.
  • Wheat continues to look good technically with the fundamental story potentially developing with dryness in Russia, problems with US HRW, dryness in Australia, and dryness in Canadian wheat areas.  Look for pullbacks to find buyers.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  When digested, cheese releases casomorphin, a compound that stimulates fat intake and slows digestions.

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