5/23/18

Morning Bullet Points - 05/23/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed this morning following a choppy night session.
  • Brazil has announced they would lower fuel taxes in an effort to end the trucker strike.
  • China rumored to have booked US soybeans out of the PNW.
  • Russian wheat production ideas starting to drop due to a dry start to the growing season.
  • Corn technically remains in its uptrend with consolidation near the highs likely a precursor to the next leg up.  Support below the July at 4.00 and resistance 4.10.
  • Soybeans technically continue to bounce off the bottom of the range.  The gap that was left Sunday night is a potential area to pull-back to.  Trend remains sideways.
  • Wheat technically remains in a longer term uptrend with support in Chicago at 5.10 and resistance 5.25.
  • USDA reported optional origin sales to Saudi Arabia for 2017/18 and 2018/19 with 70,000 MT slated for each slot.

 

WEATHER

  • Well above normal temps across the Midwest over the next couple weeks should be beneficial in getting the corn/bean crops in areas that have been well watered off to a good start.  The drier areas across the southern half of the corn belt may not handle it as well.
  • Rains still seen hitting the northern half of the corn belt for the next couple weeks.

 

OUTLOOK

  • The bull story in corn continues to develop with prices grinding to the upside for now.  US acres are too low and US/world ending stocks are set to decline considerably.  Be patient with sales, look for buyers to step in on pull-backs, and look for prices to work higher over time.
  • Soybeans have had a strong move higher to start the week with optimism seen regarding US/China trade.  One bearish piece of news is the end of the Brazil truck strike.  Additionally, the gap that was left Sunday night looks like a place the market may need to go back and fill before a run higher can happen.  Bigger picture, my bias is that the Argentine crop failure, uncertainty over the US growing season, and expectations of higher corn prices will eventually push beans higher.
  • Wheat had a wild day yesterday with the market starting to price in lower Russian wheat production.  The last time that happened in a big way was 2010 when prices rallied over $3.50 from mid-June to August.  Technically, the market looks set up for higher prices.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Research shows that kids are more likely to be honest when they know it will please their parents, even if their parents still punish them?

Want Updates?

Keep up with our market interpretation news and other important info. To receive text or email updates, simply click the button below and fill out the form.

Get Updates