5/22/18

Morning Bullet Points - 05/22/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading higher overnight and out of the gates this morning with corn approaching yesterday’s highs while soybean are trading at new highs for the week.
  • Crop progress yesterday lacked major surprises.  The corn crop is in at an average pace, and the bean crop is in ahead of average.
  • Wheat ratings were a little worse than expected while spring wheat planting saw some big progress
  • Overall, nothing overly bullish or bearish in the weekly report.
  • Brazil ports are still being impacted by the trucker strike.
  • US/China trade relations are still being viewed with some optimism.
  • The Brazilian Real has firmed the last two days after trading to the lowest level since early 2016 last Friday.
  • Corn technically remains in its longer-term uptrend with July resistance near 4.10 and support near 4.00.
  • Soybeans bounced off support at the bottom of the range and are working to the upper end of the range now.  The trend is sideways.
  • Wheat remains in its longer-term up-trend with resistance at 5.25 and support near 5.10.

 

WEATHER

  • The Midwest is expected to see well-above normal temperatures with triple digits possible in HRW areas the next couple of weeks.
  • Much of the Midwest has chances for rain over the next two weeks with a strip running from Missouri through IL and into IN the only place short-changed.
  • Brazil corn areas are dry for the next couple of weeks.
  • Argentina turns wet again.

 

OUTLOOK

  • No changes to the outlook with the crop progress report a non-event.  Corn acres are too low with US and global corn supplies set to drop by a significant amount year over year.  Look for pullbacks to be supported.  Upside sales targets come in at 4.40 July and 4.55 Dec.
  • Beans held support at the bottom of their range, so now look for them to move to the upper end of the range.  If beans get to the top of the range and corn is pushing to new highs, I think we can see an upside breakout in beans…but let’s walk before we run.  The US/China trade war is not going to change the size of the Argentine bean crop, which is what gives beans their upside potential.
  • Wheat was the weak leg yesterday as spreaders bought beans and sold wheat.  Technically, the base that was built last winter remains in place, so look for buyers to step in on pullbacks.
     

Fun Fact of the Day:  Throughout his lifetime, 85-year-old philanthropist Charles F. Feeney has given away $8 billion—he now has $2 million to live on.

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