5/17/18

Morning Bullet Points - 05/17/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight, recovering some of the losses seen on yesterday’s bean led sell-off.
  • Export sales out this morning for old crop wheat 63,100 MT (0-200 expected), old crop corn 985,700 MT (700-1,000), new crop corn 129,200 MT (50-200), old crop soybeans 281,900 MT (300-600)
  • Corn sales within expectations while bean sales were on the disappointing side.
  • Today’s updated drought monitor has dryness across HRW areas, creeping into S. IA, N. MO, W. SD, ND, and N. MN.
  • Part of yesterday’s bean weakness came on reports that Brazil bean offers had dropped below US.
  • Fund selling was a feature in corn and soybeans.
  • Corn technically remains in its longer-term uptrend with support below the market near 4.00 and resistance above 4.05.  The market has room to work higher before reaching overbought conditions.
  • Soybeans technically pushed to the low end of the trading range we have seen the last few months with July dropping sub-10.00 briefly.  The market continues to lack a trend with support at 10.00, 9.90, and 9.80.  Resistance at 10.20, 10.30, and 10.80.
  • Wheat technically remains in a longer-term up trend with the market pushing higher this morning after successfully testing support the last couple of days.
  • USDA reported 132,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2017/18.

 

WEATHER           

  • The Midwest has chances for showers over the next couple of weeks.  If there is an area that could be short-changed, it is MO, S. IA, and into the southern 2/3 of IL.
  • Brazil double crop corn catches rains the next few days.
  • Argentina has an open harvest window.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn opened higher yesterday and reversed lower, making the action seem a lot worse than it really was.  The bigger picture bull story is intact and in spite of the pullback from the highs yesterday, no major damage was done on the charts.  Look for pullbacks to be supported with prices working higher over time.
  • Soybeans dropped to recent lows yesterday before trading higher overnight.  Soybeans do not have as good of a story as the corn, but the Argentine crop failure will keep global supplies tight for the next year.  Managed funds were loaded up long beans and meal, which I think has a lot to do with the weakness.  Regardless, the market tested the bottom of the range and it held.  Longer term, I think corn eventually pulls beans out of this range to the upside.
  • Wheat looks to have successfully tested support and is working higher again.  The base built last winter looks to still be in place.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Since the Nicobar pigeon resides on the Indian Nicobar Islands with no natural predators; it has evolved bright, colorful feathers.

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