5/16/18

Morning Bullet Points - 05/16/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with corn pushing to the week’s highs while soybeans trade lower on more trade fears.
  • Informa yesterday raised corn and bean acres above the USDA estimates by 1 million and ½ million respectively.
  • NOPA crush came in at 169 million bushels, which was as expected, but also a record for the month of April.
  • Corn technically remains in its longer-term uptrend with moving average support holding yesterday.  Resistance in the July at 4.05 and then 4.40.  Support at 4.00 and 3.95.
  • Soybeans technically bounced off the bottom of their range yesterday and finished higher.  Stochastics are starting to correct from oversold with plenty of upside potential before they are overbought.
  • Wheat technically bounced off support yesterday in the mid-4.90’s with the longer-term trend still higher.  Stochastics have a lot of room to the upside.

 

WEATHER 

  • The Midwest is expected to see spotty showers over the next couple of weeks with planting across northern areas likely to continue to struggle to get caught up.
  • Rains will be welcome across the southern half where the crop has gone in timely and well.
  • Brazil is still expected to see needed rains hit double-crop corn in the next few days. Argentina dries out.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn found good buying yesterday with good follow-through overnight.  The corn bull is alive and well for reasons discussed previously.  Look for pullbacks to find buyers.
  • Soybeans had a strong reaction off the lows yesterday and closed firm.  They continue to consolidate in a 10.00-10.80 range.  With the market oversold and support holding at 10.00, I think corn could lead them to a move to the upper end of the range now.
  • Wheat looks like it is done correcting with moving average support holding near the lows yesterday.  Look for corn to lead the market higher with buyers stepping in on pullbacks.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  The highest wave ever detected by a buoy was 62.3 feet (19m) high and happened on February 4th, 2013, in the North Atlantic.

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