4/25/18

Morning Bullet Points - 04/25/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets seeing some follow through to the upside following yesterday’s firm closes.
  • The weather isn’t as good for field work today, but concerns remain limited.
  • South Korea is tendering for corn.
  • The IGC lowered their Argentine bean production number to 38 MMT.
  • Some privates dropping Argentine production closer to 30 MMT than 40 MMT.
  • China corn acres seen dropping this year by a small amount year-on-year.
  • Corn technically held support and looks to have potentially resumed its uptrend.  July has resistance at 3.95 and support at 3.85.
  • Soybeans technically reversed off lows yesterday with July finding support at 10.30.  Resistance well above the market near 10.80.
  • Wheat put in an outside up day on the charts yesterday with July Chicago support near 4.70 and resistance 5.00.

 

WEATHER

  • The HRW areas caught some rains overnight.
  • The Midwest is wetter over the next week, which will slow planting down.
  • Southern Brazil is still pretty dry as their double-crop corn grows.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn had a good day yesterday with the market able to bounce off support.  The bigger picture outlook is unchanged, which is that we need to add some acres from the March report from the USDA as well as raise a trend yield.  While the trend yield is possible, the lack of upside price movement since the end of March makes me question if acres can be added.  Regardless, world and US corn supplies are headed lower, so I think prices can head higher. 
  • Soybeans were the weak leg yesterday, but the movement in the Nov. 18/Nov. 19 spread was quite bullish.  With Argentine production estimates still working lower, I think there is a good chance that prices catch their footing and start working higher again.
  • Wheat had a bullish reversal yesterday.  The funds are still short a lot of wheat.  US spring wheat planting is lagging.  US HRW ratings are terrible.  Look for pullbacks to be supported.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Under the U.S. Constitution, each state's National Guard unit is controlled by the governor in time of peace but can be called up for federal duty by the president. The Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 forbids U.S. troops from being deployed on American soil for law enforcement.

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