4/24/18

Morning Bullet Points - 04/24/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mostly lower overnight in a painfully quiet trade.
  • Crop progress yesterday showed corn and spring wheat planting behind average pace, but the focus is on the forecast, which has a window to plant corn.
  • Corn planting was 5% vs. 14% on average.
  • Spring wheat planting was 3% vs. 25% on average.
  • Winter wheat ratings 31% good-to-excellent, which was unchanged for the week and down from 54% a year ago.
  • Soybean planting 2% vs. 2% on average.
  • Progress a week from today is expected to show corn and soybean planting ahead of average.
  • Winter wheat ratings declined in HRW areas and improved in SRW areas.
  • Cash markets have China favoring Brazil soybeans over US origin, which is hurting US bids.
  • Corn technically remains in correction mode although it bounced off 200 DMA support yesterday.  Longer-term trend is higher.
  • Soybeans technically continue to consolidate in the upper end of the range they’ve traded for the last few years with July support near 10.30…where the market is currently.  Resistance at 10.50 and 10.80.
  • Wheat technically is probing below support near 4.70.  Prices need to stop dropping now, or there is another 10-15 cents downside.
  • USDA reported 60,000 MT of soybeans to Argentina for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 70,000 MT of soybeans to Argentina for 2018/19.

 

WEATHER     

  • Northern Plains rains may keep spring wheat planting behind average pace over the next couple of weeks.
  • The Midwest is dry for the next 4-5 days, but rains return in the 6-10 and chances in the 11-15.  Big planting progress will be seen the next few days, but a major move greater than average seems unlikely.
  • South American has rains over the next couple of weeks in Brazil as well as Argentina.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn continues to correct off the highs with “good planting weather” the excuse for the break.  The bigger picture outlook remains unchanged, which is that US and global corn supplies are likely headed lower this year.  Look for higher prices over time.
  • Soybeans continue to correct along with the corn and wheat.  We had another couple of cargoes to Argentina this morning, showing just how tight their bean supplies will be going forward.  Global bean supplies are trending lower as well, which I think will mean new highs in beans on any production issues in the US this growing season.
  • Wheat is testing important support levels.  I still think a base is in place, so I like the idea of buying here with tight stops.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Since trees are different sizes, it would be difficult to say how much paper comes from one tree. According to one paper manufacturer, however, a cord of wood measuring 4 feet by 4 feet by 8 feet—or 128 cubic feet—produces nearly 90,000 sheets of bond-quality paper or 2,700 copies of a 35-page newspaper.

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