4/17/18

Morning Bullet Points - 04/17/2018

HAPPY TAX DAY—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets mostly traded higher overnight, recovering some of the sizable losses that were seen yesterday but starting to dip lower again here mid-session.
  • Corn is down 2 cents, soybeans unchanged and wheat up 5 cents.
  • Crop ratings yesterday afternoon showed winter wheat rated as 31% good-to-excellent, which was up 1% from last week.
  • Corn planting came in at 3% complete vs. 5% on the 5-year average.
  • Spring wheat was 3% planted vs. 15% average.
  • China announced tariffs on sorghum overnight, which had been a good market the last few years.  It is not a huge piece of US Ag trade, however.  China meal futures on the Dalian Exchange traded higher on the news.
  • Corn technically is pulling back from the recent highs but remains in the upper end of the recent trading range.  May has moving average support at 3.83 and 3.81.  Resistance is at the recent high of 3.95 basis May.
  • Soybeans technically remain near the top of the trading range with support below the market in the mid-10.30’s.  Resistance is at the recent high.
  • Wheat pulled back to its 20 DMA yesterday with that support coming in at 4.63.  Resistance is at 4.72 and 4.75.

WEATHER   

  • US plains still have rains over the next couple of weeks, but not quite as much that was in the forecast yesterday.
  • The northern Midwest is a little drier as well, which should help get spring fieldwork rolling.
  • Argentina is still getting rains during harvest.
  • Southern Brazil has better chances of rains over the next couple of weeks to help double-crop corn.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn has seen a good correction off highs and is testing important support that it needs to hold above to avoid a deeper correction.  The bigger picture story is unchanged, which is that lower US acres and strong demand will mean higher prices over time.
  • Beans have also seen a large correction from their recent highs with a gap below the market at 10.37 as well as moving averages near 10.36 as downside targets on this correction.  The bigger picture story is still going to be dominated by the Argentine crop failure and lower global stocks because of it.  Look for buyers to start to step in on this pullback.
  • Wheat has also pulled back to moving average support on the current move.  I think buyers will step in here, but a close below 4.60 in Chicago may mean the move higher is going to be delayed for a bit.

Fun Fact of the Day:  The first US income tax started during in the Civil War to help raise money back in 1862

 

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