4/3/18

Morning Bullet Points - 04/03/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets were flat overnight, but now up 3 cents on corn, soybeans up about 9 cents.
  • Trade concerns continue to worry some in the market for both corn and soybeans. China needs soybeans, but the US also needs to sell them to China. As of now the fireworks have died down, but this could be a weighing factor of trade issues continue.
  • Thursday’s report was bearish from a stocks standpoint, with corn and bean stocks greater than expected.
  • Thursday’s bullish report continues to have its effects on prices. With risk premiums not even factored in, we could see a higher acreage number come June.
  • Corn technically has returned to the highs of the year with resistance for May in the mid-3.90’s and support in the mid-3.80’s.
  • Soybeans working higher on lower acreage, could continue to move higher until it meets resistance at 10.80.
  • The wheat sell-off is taking a break today as dryness concerns are ongoing in HRW areas.

 

WEATHER

  • Key US winter wheat areas are dry for the next couple of weeks even though Midwest should continue to see some rains.
  • Argentina is expected to catch rains in the 6-10.
  • Brazil sees scattered showers over the next couple of weeks.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn continues to look bullish in the next few months. With smaller acreage and expanding demand, the market needs to buy up more acreage or work demand out. The US hasn’t begun planting, which means we haven’t even begun to factor in weather premiums that come with dry weather concerns in May/June/July. With soybeans higher, corn has more reasons to continue moving higher than lower.
  • Globally beans supplies will be tight with Argentina down, but part of that is balanced by Brazil’s high yields. With lower acreage on this report beans are set to keep moving higher. Markets will need to compete with corn acres, which prices are trying to buy back. For the short term expect beans to trend higher.
  • Corn and soybeans are setting a bullish trend for wheat to follow. With dryness concerns ongoing we could see wheat trend higher to follow suit.

 

Fun Fact of the Day: Although they sell 700 million peeps each year, nearly 1/3rd are only used for decoration. Furthermore, peeps are estimated to have a shelf life of nearly two years.

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