3/15/18

Morning Bullet Points - 03/15/2018

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading higher this morning with soybeans bouncing from their sharp sell-off late yesterday.
  • Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 162,800 MT (250-500 expected), corn 2,505,100 MT (1300-1700), beans 1,296,600 MT (800-1200).
  • Another week of impressive corn sales while beans were no slouch either.  Wheat disappointed, however with products near expectations.
  • NOPA crush will be out at 11am CST and is expected to be 149.4 mbu.
  • Egypt tendered for wheat yesterday with Russia expected to be the lowest offer again.
  • The Argentine Ag minister acknowledged that their bean crop could drop below 40 MMT this year (USDA at 47 last report).
  • Corn technically remain in an uptrend with support at 3.83 and resistance 3.94.
  • Soybeans technically put in an outside down day, but have recovered a portion of those losses this morning.  Support below the market at 10.30 and 9.80.  Resistance at 10.50.
  • Wheat technically is finding moving average support at 4.85 with resistance at 5.00 and support at 4.83-4.85.

WEATHER             

  • Argentina is expected to catch some rains this weekend although the impact on the crop at this point will be limited.
  • Brazil is pretty dry for the next couple weeks, which will help harvest move along.
  • The potential for rains over the next few days looks to be improving a bit in KS although much of the state is still dry.  The 11-15 has the potential for some moisture in OK.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn pulled back yesterday, following the lead of beans.  The outlook for corn continues to be favorable, but I think the market is likely to test some of the recent speculative longs before resuming the uptrend.
  • Soybeans collapsed to support at 10.30 yesterday, dipped below early last night, and are now trading well above.  Fundamentally, not much has changed, but even with the lower Argentine crop, bean supplies are probably adequate.  I think we can see more long liquidation in the near-term.  If you thought you missed the boat on beans after they broke down yesterday, do not be afraid to sell into the early strength today.
  • Wheat is in a spot where supply fundamentals suggest we do not need to go higher, but a bottom looks to have been put in on the charts, so I think pullbacks will be well-supported for now.

Fun Fact of the Day:  Wallethub estimates that hourly corporate losses will amount to roughly $1.9 billion as a result of workers whose productivity has been diverted by March Madness.

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