2/27/18

Morning Bullet Points - 02/27/2018

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed this morning with soybeans seeing a two-sided trade, wheat firm, and corn slightly higher.
  • Wheat ratings came in low again yesterday with KS wheat rated 12% good-to-excellent and 4% of OK rated good-to-excellent.
  • Producer selling of corn continues to be a feature with a very large offer of new crop corn at 4.00 resting above the market.
  • Argentine soybean production estimates working lower still while Brazil bean production estimates may have topped out.  Overall, the bigger than expected Brazil production is going to come close to offsetting lower production in Argentina.
  • First notice day is tomorrow for March futures.
  • Corn technically pushed to new highs yesterday with Dec. hitting resistance at 4.00 and May 3.79-3.80.  The trend is higher.
  • Soybeans technically pushed to a new high yesterday before pulling back to close lower.  Meal has failed to push to new highs, so there is some divergence in the bean complex.  Resistance at 10.50 May and support 10.20.
  • Wheat is back to the top of the range after the move overnight.  A base looks to be in place with support near 4.55 May and resistance 4.70.
  • USDA reported 130,000 MT of corn to unknown for 2017/18.

WEATHER   

  • Argentina continues to see a mostly dry outlook with reduced chances at the end of the 6-10 period.
  • Brazil continues to see spotty rains the next 5 days before some drying is seen.  The 11-15 has showers return.  Harvest/planting of second-crop corn continues to run behind in northern areas.
  • US plains pretty dry over the next couple of weeks with the exception of chances for rains in OK the next few days.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn has spent much of the month working higher with producers selling and funds buying.  The average price so far this month is 3.95, which probably prevents the corn acre number declining significantly year over year.  Regardless, unless the acres come in surprisingly high at the end of March, there is potential for the world corn stocks to be very tight, which I think means the market will pump more risk premium into the market later in the year.  Keeping that in mind, March has been a tough month for corn the last few years.
  • Soybeans continue to find speculative buying on dryness concerns in Argentina.  What has not been getting the hype is the size of the Brazil soybean crop.  Sales in this price area will look good next fall barring a widespread production problem in the US.
  • KC wheat pushed to new highs for the move overnight.  The ratings are bad, but there is time for rains to help the crop out.  If you’ve got a wheat crop that looks ok, make sure you’re making some sales into the rally.

Fun Fact of the Day:  In the United States, the term "pig" refers to a younger domesticated swine weighing less than 120 pounds (50 kilograms), and the term "hog" refers to older swine weighing more than 120 lbs. In Great Britain, all domesticated swine are referred to as pigs.

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