2/22/18

Morning Bullet Points - 02/22/2018

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading with small losses overnight in a pretty quiet trade.
  • Export sales delayed a day due to Monday’s holiday.
  • The USDA outlook forum will be releasing balance sheets throughout the day…nothing too shocking is likely to come out.
  • The Rosario exchanged lowered their Argentine bean production forecast to 46.5 MMT (USDA 54) and corn to 35mmt (USDA 39).
  • Corn technically bumping into resistance near 3.70 with support below the market in the mid-3.50’s.  The trend is higher, but overdue for pullback.
  • Soybeans technically running into resistance in the 10.30 area.  Upside breakout puts the market on track for 10.80 while a failure here would suggest a pullback to the 9.80 area.
  • Wheat pulling back from recent highs, but the trend is higher.  Support near 4.40 and resistance 4.50.
  • USDA reported 130,000 MT of corn to unknown for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 55,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 55,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2018/19.

 

WEATHER           

  • Argentina remains dry for the next 10 days, which is more of the same.
  • Brazil has scattered showers in the forecast, which is also more of the same.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn is lacking of any new news.  The trend is higher, which I think can continue until we get closer to the US growing season.  However, the market is overdue for a pullback as “the funds” have been big buyers and producers big sellers.
  • Soybeans look to be on the verge of a bigger move out of this area.  Fundamentally, I’m not sure a move higher is justified, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.  From a producer’s standpoint, though, I think this is an area of resistance where sales need to be made.
  • Wheat is in the process of correcting.  There is another 10 cents downside before good support shows up.

 

Fun Fact of the Day: No one is quite sure where the phrase “say cheese” came from, but it originated in the early 20th century probably because the phrase causes the corners of the mouth to turn up into a natural smile. Most cultures have their own unique phrases, like Sweden where the phrase translates to “say omelet.”

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