2/21/18

Morning Bullet Points - 02/21/2018

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with KC wheat feeling some pressure from the rain.
  • South American weather still mixed with more dryness seen in Argentina.
  • Argentine corn production estimates are working lower with most numbers now 2-3 MMT below the USDA’s February estimate of 39 MMT.  Argentine soybean production estimates running sub-50 MMT with the USDA at 54 MMT on the February report.
  • Egypt tendered for wheat yesterday.
  • Soy meal pushed to a new high yesterday along with soybeans before pulling back from the recent high.
  • Corn posted a bearish key reversal on Tuesday, trading to a new recent high before pulling back to close lower.  The trend is higher, but there is potential for a bigger pullback to test support levels.
  • Soybeans technically pushed to a new high for the recent move, flirting with a breakout to the upside yesterday before pulling back to finish near the day’s low.  If we can get back above 10.30, the next resistance is at 10.80.  Support below the market at 10.00 and 9.80.
  • Wheat technically probed below moving average support overnight but recovered.  The next support is near 4.40 with resistance 4.50 and 4.70.

WEATHER          

  • Argentina mostly dry over the next 10 days with 2/3 of growing areas seeing stress.  There are chances in the 11-15, but that is clearly a ways off.
  • Brazil keeps seeing scattered rains over the next couple of weeks.
  • US wheat areas have chances for rains over the next 5 days.

OUTLOOK

  • With the shrinking size of the South American corn crop, the corn outlook is improving considerably.  Farmers have been selling the rally and “the funds” have been buyers on dips.  I want to be a buyer on a correction to the mid-3.50’s as the long-term job of the market will be to keep corn acres steady year over year if not grow them.  Right now, I do not hear much excitement or interest in increasing corn.
  • Soybeans traded to the top of the range yesterday flirted with an upside breakout and then pulled back.  Calendar spreads collapsed with the July/Nov. settling 7 ¾ cents off the intraday high.  I think that was probably a near-term high. 
  • The wheat dynamic changed much.  Rains put some pressure on HRW.  A base still looks like it has been built with buyers expected to show up 10 cents below the market.

Fun Fact of the Day:   At least one type of venomous snake is found in every state except Alaska and Hawaii.

Want Updates?

Keep up with our market interpretation news and other important info. To receive text or email updates, simply click the button below and fill out the form.

Get Updates