2/15/18

Morning Bullet Points - 02/15/2018

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mostly higher overnight in a quiet trade but the soy complex continues to firm.
  • Export sales this morning for wheat 311,100 MT (200-450 expected), corn 1,974,000 MT (1,000-1,500), soybeans 640,000 MT (450-750), meal 210,000 MT (150-450).
  • Another big week for corn sales and another week of disappointing soybean sales.
  • Rosario Grain Exchange said Argentine soybean production will be no larger than 50 MMT (USDA 54).
  • Corn technically trending higher but bumping into resistance at 3.70 and 4.00 in the Dec.  Support below the market near 3.60.
  • Soybeans remain range-bound, but are testing the top of the range currently.  Support at 10.00 and 9.80.  Resistance at 10.20 and 10.30.
  • Wheat trending higher like the corn, but pulling back after a bearish reversal on Tuesday.  Support at 4.45 and resistance at 4.70.

WEATHER            

  • Argentina still has limited chances for rains to finish the week.
  • Scattered showers seen over the next couple of weeks in Brazil.
  • US winter wheat has chances for rain over the next 10 days.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn continues to climb higher on prospects for better exports as well as making sure that US acres do not decline.  With the insurance price being set this month and big yields in the memory from last year, I think the market is doing a good job of “buying” corn acres.  With large US stocks, we can handle an increase in demand, so I am still interested in selling now and buying a pullback.
  • Soybeans continue to see wide swings.  I think we have done a good job of pricing in the lower Argentine production, so I continue to think the current rally is a selling opportunity.
  • Wheat is pulling back after the reversal on Tuesday.  Look for buyers to step in on a further correction.

Fun Fact of the Day:  the first CD made in the United States for commercial release was Bruce Springsteen's 1984 album, "Born in the U.S.A." However, it was not the first commercially available CD ever. That title belongs to Billy Joel's "52nd Street," which was released on CD in Japan in 1982.

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