2/9/18

Morning Bullet Points - 02/09/2018

HAPPY FRIDAY—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading with small losses overnight in a quite trade.
  • Yesterday’s report had some small surprises in better than expected US corn exports, worse than expected US bean exports, and South American production came in near expectations as a whole.

 

2017/18 US Ending Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

2.352

2.468

2.425-.255

2.477

 

Soybean Stocks

530

486

460-535

470

 

Wheat Stocks

1.009

990

974-1.014

989

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017/18 World Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

203.09

204.66

198.9-208

206.57

 

Soybean Stocks

98.14

98.61

97-100.5

98.57

 

Wheat Stocks

266.1

267.8

265-269.7

268.02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017/18 South American Production

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Arg. Corn

39

40.68

40-42

42

 

Arg. Bean

54

54.06

52-56

56

 

Brz. Corn

95

93.73

87.1-95.5

95

 

Brz. Bean

112

111.2

110-112.5

110

 

 

  • South America production likely changes to finish out the year with Argentine corn and soybean estimates trending lower.
  • Wheat numbers were mixed with US stocks bigger than expected and world lower.
  • The USDA was more aggressive with the US corn export forecast than expected.
  • CFTC report this afternoon expected to show large buying in corn/wheat with net selling in soybeans.
  • Corn technically is trending higher with support in the mid-3.50’s and resistance at 3.70.
  • Beans technically are range-bound with support at 9.80 and resistance 10.00.
  • Wheat technically is trending higher with support at 4.40 and resistance 4.70.

WEATHER

  • Argentina is expected to catch rain in the next few days.
  • Dry weather in the 6-15 period will see stress re-build.
  • US wheat areas have chances for rain in the 6-10 period.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn traded to a new high after the report yesterday with good buying interest under the market.  Exports are good, and the market has handled a large amount of farmer selling in stride.  Bigger picture, we still have more than adequate supplies of corn, but world stocks are dropping year-over-year, so I think we could see the market do what it takes to stabilize production by incentivizing producers to plant corn.
  • Soybeans have been bid up on lower Argentine crop ideas, but the USDA said yesterday that Brazil is going to make up for their loss.  Beans have the greatest downside risk, so look to sell on rallies.
  • Wheat looks to have a base in place.  Look for buyers to step in on pullbacks.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Seven cities have hosted the Olympic Games more than once: Athens (1896 and 2004 Summer Olympics), Paris (19001924, and 2024 Summer Olympics), London (19081948, and 2012 Summer Olympics), St. Moritz (1928 and 1948 Winter Olympics), Lake Placid (1932 and 1980 Winter Olympics), Los Angeles (19321984, and 2028 Summer Olympics), and Innsbruck (1964 and 1976 Winter Olympics).

 

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