1/16/18

Morning Bullet Points - 01/16/2018

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets traded mixed overnight with soybean/corn higher and wheat lower.
  • Friday’s USDA report was lacking the bearish death knell for beans that many were expecting.
  • Supplies overall remain historically large and adequate to meet demand.
  • South American weather looks good at the moment.
  • Egypt is tendering for wheat currently.
  • Corn technically remains range-bound with support in the mid-3.40’s and resistance mid-3.50’s.
  • Soybeans put in a bullish key reversal Friday and saw follow-through overnight.  Support at 9.30 and resistance at 9.80.
  • Wheat collapsed off moving average resistance Friday and is seeing follow through selling to start the week.  Support at 4.10 and resistance 4.20.
  • No daily sales.

WEATHER       

  • Better than expected rains in Argentina over the weekend.
  • More scattered showers for Brazil over the next couple weeks.
  • Very limited problems in SA at the moment.

OUTLOOK

  • Report Friday changed nothing for corn.  Supplies are large.  Market is likely to remain range-bound.  Sell the top of the range and buy the bottom.
  • Friday’s report was a little supportive soybeans.  The market was leaning hard to the short side going in, so we have a bullish key reversal that could lead to more short-covering.  Supplies are still at multi-year highs, so do not forget to be a willing seller if the market can tack on another 10-15 cents from here.
  • Wheat had a bearish report on Friday.  The market failed technically, but another 5 cents downside and we are back at support.
  • Bigger picture, it is hard for me to be overly bullish or bearish any market at these prices. 

Fun Fact of the Day:  The Statue of Liberty arrived in New York Harbor on June 19, 1885, as a gift of friendship from the people of France to the people of the United States.

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