1/11/18

Morning Bullet Points - 01/11/2018

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets traded mixed overnight with soybeans up slightly, wheat down a few cents and corn essentially unchanged.
  • Export sales this morning for wheat 71,500 MT (250-450 expected), corn 437,800 MT (350-650), soybeans 607,400 MT (500-850).
  • Disappointing exports across the board.
  • CONAB put Brazil bean production at 110.4 MMT and Brazil corn production at 92.3 MMT.
  • Corn technically is sitting in the middle of the range.  Downside targets on a bearish report are 12 cents below the market at 3.36.  Resistance overhead at 3.55 and 3.60.
  • Soybeans technically pushed to new lows yesterday, continuing the lower trend that started in December.  Support at 9.30 and resistance at 9.80.
  • Wheat technically is trying to turn higher with the 50 DMA providing stiff resistance so far.  Support at 4.25 and resistance at 4.33.
  • USDA reported 132,000 MT of soybeans 2017/18.

WEATHER         

  • Brazil catches rains over the next couple of weeks except for the north where up to 15% of corn/soybean areas will dry out.
  • Argentina has chances for rains in the 6-10 and 11-15 periods.
  • US plains may get some moisture in the next 10 days, but dryness returns after that.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn remains range-bound.  The news is slow until we get the report tomorrow.  I think buyers will step in on a bearish report while sellers (producers) limit upside on a bullish report.
  • Soybeans resumed their lower trend yesterday.  The outlook for Brazil has some areas drying out, so I think it may be time to pump the breaks on selling.  Longer term, though, soybeans have the weakest fundamentals.
  • Wheat is running into some resistance and the report tomorrow is probably going to be lacking anything overly bullish or bearish.  I think a low is in place, so look to buy on pullbacks.

Fun Fact of the Day:  The U.S. hosted its first Olympics in 1904 in St. Louis, Missouri.  The last U.S.-hosted summer Olympics were held in Atlanta in 1996, preceded by Los Angeles in 1984 and 1932 and by St. Louis in 1904.

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