12/22/17

Morning Bullet Points - 12/22/2017

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading with small gains overnight in a quiet/low volume trade.
  • The markets close at noon today and do not re-open until Tuesday morning at 8:30am CST.  I will be on the desk all morning, you need anything.
  • January options expire today and assume we will try and pin the 3.50 strike price.
  • Corn technically is bumping into resistance at its 20 DMA with support at 3.50 and 3.45.
  • Soybeans are extremely oversold with buyers stepping in sub-9.50.  Resistance at 9.60 and 9.80.
  • Wheat continues to bounce from oversold conditions with the market potentially changing trend.  Support at 4.20 and resistance 4.30.
  • USDA reported 252,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2017/18.

WEATHER  

  • Rains still seen hitting Argentina in the near-term before drying out in the 6-10.
  • Brazil is still in good shape with scattered showers seen over the next couple of weeks.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn has been grinding higher over the last week, but is still having a hard time moving too far from 3.50.  Demand is good, but farmer owned supplies will likely prevent a move out of the established range anytime soon.
  • Soybeans continued their free fall yesterday, but have stabilized for the moment.    I think the rains in Argentina have been priced in.  Look for things to stabilize until we know a little more about SA weather/production.
  • Wheat is getting into some moving average resistance that are likely triggering some short covering.  With a massive speculative short in that market, I think there is another 5-10 cents upside potential before the market refocuses on large wheat supplies around the world.

Have a very safe and joyful Christmas.

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