12/12/17

Morning Bullet Points - 12/12/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with soybeans seeing more selling while corn traded with a small grain
  • USDA will be out at 11:00am CST with their December update today.  A limited reaction is expected.
  • CONAB estimated the Brazil bean crop at 109.2 MMT.  Average guess for today is 108.2 MMT, but there has been plenty of talk of bigger production than either of those numbers.
  • Cash corn and bean markets remain quiet, but were a couple cents better at the gulf.
  • GASC tendered for wheat after the close yesterday.
  • South Korea announced a tender for 2 cargoes of corn and 1 of feed wheat.
  • Corn technically is at the bottom of the range with March feeling some attraction to 3.50.  Support in the mid-3.40’s and resistance mid-3.50’s.
  • Soybeans technically pushed through moving average support yesterday and settled below.  Good support is at 9.80 and the 9.30.  Resistance at 10.00.
  • Wheat technically posts new contract lows every day.  Support for March Chicago what 4.10 and 4.00.  Resistance at 4.20.
  • USDA reported 120,000 MT of HRW to Algeria for 2017/18.
  • USDA changed 492,000 MT of soybeans from unknown to China for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 152,000 MT of corn to Mexico for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 168,300 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2017/18.

WEATHER

  • More rain in Brazil over the next couple of weeks.
  • Argentina has slightly better chances for rain in the 6-10, but overall still has some dryness issues.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn traded to support yesterday and looked to have found some buyers later in the session.  News is slow with nothing too shocking expected on the report today.  With the market oversold and farmers slow sellers at this level, I think we can see a bounce.
  • Soybeans are seeing some pressure led by the weak cash market and talk that Brazil may have a bigger crop coming than was thought earlier in the year.  There is still a lot of growing season left, but Brazil is in good shape.  The question mark is how Argentina ends up.  Regardless, beans are still a little expensive relative to corn/wheat, so a further pullback from here is possible.
  • Wheat found some good news with the sale to Algeria this morning.  That could slow the move lower.

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