12/6/17

Morning Bullet Points - 12/06/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with soybeans pushing up against the recent highs. 
  • Stats Canada was out this morning with all wheat output at 29.98 MMT (28 MMT expected).  Canola output was 21.31 MMT (21 MMT expected).  Spring wheat is under pressure following the report.
  • Argentine rains are still scarce with a drier outlook for the next two weeks this morning.
  • Monsanto says Brazil summer corn area may drop 20-30% this year; this would be construed as bullish.
  • Cash corn markets stabilizing on the futures weakness.
  • US cash soybeans remain soft as the market has needs covered for now.
  • Corn technically pulled back from highs yesterday to settle under the 20 DMA, but it is back above this morning.  The market still has a potential double bottom in place with support at 3.50 and resistance 3.60.
  • Soybeans pushed to new recent highs yesterday with the market seeing higher highs and lows.  Support at 10.00 and resistance at 10.20.
  • Wheat remains range-bound with support at 4.30 and resistance 4.40.
  • USDA changed the November 30th soybean sale to China to 393,000 MT vs. 525,000 MT on the previous report.

WEATHER          

  • Brazil is slated to catch rains over the next couple of weeks, although the southern 1/3 of corn/soybean areas will need a rain by the 11-15 period.
  • Argentina has seen rains taken out of the forecast the rest of the week with next good chances in the 11-15 period.  Temperatures are seen in the 90’s.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn reversed Monday and put in an inside day yesterday.  The market ran out of follow-through sellers yesterday with some question marks regarding the South American corn crop.  They have more corn there currently than they know what to do with and US supplies are large, so it is hard for me to think corn works higher on South American weather.  However, if soybeans/meal go higher on South American weather concerns, corn will probably feel some spillover strength. 
  • Soybeans are attracting some new risk premium on SA weather concerns.  There is a good supply cushion globally, and things look good in Brazil.  However, Argentina matters, especially from a soy product standpoint.  Until the forecast turns wet, which could happen at any time, the soybeans will probably be supported.
  • Wheat got a bearish report out of Canada this morning with futures testing the bottom of the range again.  If wheat can find buyers down here in spite of the bearish Canadian numbers, I think some short covering is likely to push the market higher.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  At various times in history, the White House has been known as the "President's Palace," the "President's House," and the "Executive Mansion." President Theodore Roosevelt officially gave the White House its current name in 1901.

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