11/30/17

Morning Bullet Points - 11/30/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mostly lower overnight with big wheat deliveries in Chicago weighing on that market.  Corn down 1.5 cents, soybeans down 5.25 cents and wheat down 7 cents.
  • Export sales this morning for wheat were 184,400 MT (250-450 expected), old crop corn 599,200 MT (700-1,100), new crop corn 0 (0-100), old crop soybeans 942,900 MT (800-1,200), new crop soybeans 0 (0-100)
  • Terrible corn and wheat sales while soybeans need to be better as well.  We will see if the market fades the disappointing numbers again.
  • 2,000 wheat were delivered last night with most believing it was The Anderson’s.  1,200 corn were delivered with 1,104 thought to be put out by Cargill. 
  • Cash corn markets still seeing some firmness while soybeans remain historically weak.
  • The EPA kept the biofuel usage targets the same as a year ago.
  • Corn technically has a potential double bottom in place after the bounce from the lows yesterday.  Support for March is at $3.50 and resistance $3.60.
  • Soybeans technically are at the middle of the year’s range with support for Jan. at $9.80 and resistance $9.90.
  • Wheat is pulling back after bouncing to test resistance at the bottom of the previous trading range.  Support for March at $4.30 and resistance $4.45.
  • USDA reported 525,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 132,000 MT of soybeans to “unknown” for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 110,000 MT of sorghum to China for 2017/18

WEATHER

  • Brazil still seeing rains over the next couple of weeks to keep things in good shape.
  • Argentina forecast models are mixed once we get past the weekend.  Regardless, dryness is seen over at least 1/3 of Argentine growing areas.

OUTLOOK

  • Big corn and wheat deliveries are not bullish, but also not too much of a surprise considering the US stocks we have.
  • Corn saw a bounce off the lows yesterday.  With the potential double bottom on the charts, I think it is possible to see another 10 cents higher from here on short covering.  The bigger picture fundamentals say we stay in this range, however.
  • Soybeans look vulnerable to more downside to me.  Progress and weather look good in Brazil.  US cash markets are weak.  If the market trades down to $9.80 and support there does not hold, I think there is downside risk to $9.30 in the near term.
  • Wheat tried to bounce from the recent lows, but the huge deliveries yesterday may make it hard to keep the upside momentum going.  Look for more range bound trading to persist.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  The term "Cyber Monday" was created by marketing companies to persuade people to shop online. The term made its debut on November 28, 2005, in a Shop.org press release entitled "'Cyber Monday Quickly Becoming One of the Biggest Online Shopping Days of the Year".

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