11/21/17

Morning Bullet Points - 11/21/2017

GOOD MORNING—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading with small losses overnight in a quiet trade.
  • Dry spots in Argentina are staying dry for the next couple of weeks.
  • Crop progress showed corn harvest 90% complete vs. 95% average.  Soybean harvest is 96% complete vs. 97% average.
  • Winter wheat rated 52% good-to-excellent, which was down 2% from last week.
  • Cash corn markets remain firm, as movement is slow.
  • The Dec./March corn spread has made a strong (narrower) move going into FND (first notice day).
  • Cash beans soft with calendar spreads lower yesterday in spite of the big recovery off the lows.
  • Equity futures trading within a few points of all-time highs again.
  • Corn technically recovered to test moving average resistance at 3.45 yesterday before pulling back overnight.  The market is a slightly overbought with support at 3.40 and resistance 3.45.
  • Soybeans technically are trading right at the middle of the range we have seen for the last several months.  Support is at 9.80 and resistance 10.00.
  • Wheat remains range-bound with support at 4.20 and resistance 4.30.
  • USDA reported 130,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2017/18.

 

WEATHER 

  • Brazil still seen catching rains to keep things in good shape over the next week.
  • A third of Argentina stays dry over the next couple of weeks, but temperatures run below normal.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn is about 7 cents off its recent lows.  As long as the cash market does not falter, I think futures can probably add another 20 cents on short-covering, which would put futures in the 3.60’s.  Keep an eye on spreads and changes in the cash market to signal the rally may be running out of steam.
  • Soybeans do not have support from a strong cash market helping them, but they do have the dryness in Argentina.  I think they are vulnerable to more downside due to the weakness in the cash, but that can change quickly.
  • Wheat remains stuck in its range with no reason for that to change.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  The average person has about 3 to 5 dreams per night, but some may have up to 7 dreams in one night. The dreams tend to last longer as the night progresses. During a full 8-hour night sleep, two hours of it is spent dreaming. It is not at all unusual for a person to have more than one dream per night.

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