11/17/17

Morning Bullet Points - 11/17/2017

HAPPY FRIDAY—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading with small gains overnight following Thursday’s fall to new contract lows for December 2017 corn.
  • CFTC report this afternoon expected to show the managed fund short at or near record large, and with this week’s increases in OI, it is expected to be much larger next week.  Funds are expected to be holding a relatively large short in wheat and probably close to even in the soy complex.
  • The rumor mill has China buying US corn off the PNW, which is giving a small spark to corn prices.
  • Informa raised their corn acre forecast by about 1 million for next year while dropping bean acres by 600,000.
  • Cattle on feed this afternoon expected to be 105.7% from a year ago and placements 107.7%.
  • Cash corn markets continue to firm a bit, as cash soybeans are starting to soften up.  If futures were to bounce, cash corn would likely soften significantly.
  • Corn technically remains in a lower trend with support at 3.30 and resistance 3.40.
  • Soybeans technically have rolled over with support at 9.30 and resistance 9.80.
  • Wheat remains range bound with support at 4.20 and resistance 4.30.

 

WEATHER   

  • Brazil seeing scattered showers over the next few weeks.
  • Argentina has better chances for rains in the 6-10 and 11-15 periods as some areas there are getting dry.
  • Overall, no major changes.

 

OUTLOOK

  • It is incredible to see corn open interest climb every day as managed funds continue to be willing sellers at contract lows.  Supplies are big, carries are big, and so far there hasn’t been anything to spook them out of their shorts.  With first notice day for December approaching at the end of the month, I think it is possible to see a pretty good bounce at some point in the next 10 trading days.
  • Soybeans are consolidating in the 9.70’s.  Unless the South American situation deteriorates, I think the weak cash markets are suggesting lower futures prices.
  • Wheat continues to be an afterthought with no reason to see prices trade higher or lower unless led by corn/soybeans.

 

Fun Fact of the Day: Randy Gardner is the holder of the scientifically documented record for the longest period a human has intentionally gone without sleep not using stimulants of any kind. In 1964, Gardner, a 17-year-old high school student in San Diego, California, stayed awake for 264.4 hours (11 days 24 minutes).

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