11/15/17

Morning Bullet Points - 11/15/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mostly higher overnight in a pretty quiet trade again.
  • NOPA crush out at 11:00 am CST and expected to be 164.5 mbu.
  • COFCO estimated China soybean imports this marketing year at 100 MMT (USDA at 97 currently).
  • Managed funds now seen record short corn while they are working on dumping their remaining length in soybeans.
  • South America is lacking a weather story, thus the market continues its malaise.
  • Talk that the USDA is underestimating the Brazil soybean crop but it is very early.
  • Corn technically looks to be headed for long-term support at 3.30.  The trend is lower for now.
  • Soybeans have broken down technically with support below the market at 9.30 and resistance at 9.75.
  • Wheat is range-bound with resistance at 4.28 and support 4.20.

WEATHER            

  • Scattered rains were seen hitting Brazil over the next couple of weeks to limit any weather concerns at this time.
  • Argentina is catching up with planting and moisture reserves are good.
  • Overall, no major concerns.

OUTLOOK

  • For the time being, “the funds” are in control of the corn market and willing to add to their shorts as the market makes new lows.  Good buyers are showing up under the market, but until some downside objectives are hit, I do not see corn recovering much.  The next major objective, in my opinion, is 3.30.
  • Soybeans broke down earlier in the week.  Unless problems in South America emerge, soybeans are probably overpriced.
  • Wheat is stuck in a range with no reason to make a sizable move in either direction until corn or soybeans break out of recent ranges.

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