11/10/17

Morning Bullet Points - 11/10/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed in quiet post-crop report market.
  • Traders were shocked yesterday by the big corn production number.

 

 

2017/18 US Production

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

Corn Production

14578

14.333

14.25-14.459

14.280

Corn Yield

175.4

172.4

171.7-174

171.8

Corn Acres

83.119

83.1

83-83.2

83.119

Bean Production

4.425

4.408

4.375-4.467

4.431

Bean Yield

49.5

49.3

48.9-49.9

49.5

Bean Acres

89.471

89.486

89.4-89.5

89.471

 

 

2017/18 US Ending Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

2487

2.366

2.286-2.438

2.340

 

Soybean Stocks

425

420

377-461

430

 

Wheat Stocks

935

957

940-980

960

 

 

       

 

 

2017/18 World Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

203.86

201.18

197.6-203.5

200.96

 

Soybean Stocks

97.9

95.5

93-97

96.05

 

Wheat Stocks

267.53

266.78

261-269

268.13

 

 

  • The corn yield was a big surprise, but other adjustments made the impact on the balance sheets somewhat limited.
  • Corn open interest sharply higher post report with the managed fund position now expected to be record large.
  • China reportedly booking ethanol cargoes from the US the past few days.
  • Corn traded to new contract lows yesterday.  Support for the Dec. is at 3.30 and resistance 3.45.
  • Soybeans bumping into support at the bottom of their recent channel.  Support in the 9.70’s and resistance at 9.90.
  • Wheat is hitting moving average resistance near 4.30 with support at 4.20.

WEATHER

  • Northern Brazil caught rains in the past day with more expected mid-next week.
  • Argentina has a dry forecast that should allow planting to continue.
  • Overall, no major areas of concern in South America.

OUTLOOK

  • The big corn production number will be a weight on the market moving forward, and will also temper bullishness when seeing the adverse weather in the future as well.  Major support shows up at 3.30, which is the logical place to look for futures to trade down to.
  • Soybeans had a neutral report yesterday but had rallied coming into the number.  With the US pipeline full and corn making new contract lows, soybeans probably do not need to rally.
  • Wheat remains stuck in its range with little reason to make a major move higher unless corn/beans lead.

 

Have a great weekend!

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