11/8/17

Morning Bullet Points - 11/08/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with wheat seeing the most pressure.
  • USDA will be out tomorrow with their November supply and demand estimates.
  • Trump is in China today with some looking for new soybean deals to be inked.  There is also some talk that new ethanol export agreements could be signed.  Neither will likely be significant to flat price.
  • Brazil group Abiove estimated their soybean crop yesterday at 108.8 MMT (USDA 107).
  • Cash corn and soybean markets have shown some improvement in the nearby bids the last few days.
  • China soybean imports for October were 5.86 MMT, which was less than expected as early harvested beans were delayed due to the hurricanes.
  • Egypt tendered for wheat yesterday afternoon with Russia expected to win the business again.
  • Corn technically remains stuck in a range.
  • Beans technically found support again at the bottom of its up-trend with support at 9.90 and resistance 10.00.
  • Wheat technically still range-bound.

WEATHER            

  • Brazil caught some rains in the last couple of days to limit moisture deficits with more expected in the 11-15 day period.
  • Argentina should see some dry weather to allow planting progress to be made.

OUTLOOK

  • The surprise for corn on the report tomorrow would be if national yield came in less than expected or even unchanged.  I do not think that will happen, but that is why it would be a surprise.  Regardless, we have strong corn demand, most of the crop is put away, and the funds are heavily short the market.  Regardless of how bullish or bearish the numbers are, buyers will likely step in near 3.45 again while producer selling would likely pick up on a 10 cent rally.  I think a target to sell Dec. corn is 3.68-3.70, which I think is possible on fund short-covering.
  • If there is to be a surprise on the soybeans tomorrow, I think it would be with a bigger than expected national yield.  The market looks to me like it wants to make a move with a bearish report likely opening the door to 40-50 cents downside while a bullish report could mean 40-50 higher. 
  • Wheat continues to struggle as supplies are large and buyers are unwilling to chase the market higher.

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