11/3/17

Morning Bullet Points - 11/03/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight in a quiet trade.
  • Monthly jobs report this morning came out at +261,000 (+310,000 expected) and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% (4.2 expected), which is the lowest level since 2000.  Equity and treasury futures are both essentially flat after the report.  The US Dollar Index fell after the number, trading near the lows for the week.
  • No major changes to South American weather.
  • The commitment of traders report is expected to show across the board fund selling in corn, beans, and wheat as of Tuesday.
  • Corn technically bumping into moving average resistance at 3.51 with 3.50 acting as a magnet.
  • Soybeans technically are continuing their up-trend with support holding earlier in the week.  Resistance at 10.00 and support at 9.80.
  • Wheat bounced from oversold conditions the last couple of days but remains range-bound.  Support at 4.20 and resistance at 4.30.
  • USDA reported 300,000 MT of HRW to Iraq for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 102,400 MT of corn to Mexico for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 135,000 MT of corn to South Korea for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 251,000 MT of sorghum to "unknown" for 2017/18.

WEATHER

  • Brazil expected to see more rains in dry northern areas next week, limiting any dry spots.
  • Argentina has a dry window before rains return next week.
  • US weather is open after rains move across the northern Midwest over the next couple of days.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn is still stuck to 3.50 until it is not.  We have had some supportive news on the export front this week, but the market has not been overly impressive thus far.  I still think a seasonal bounce off the lows is coming as we head into December FND (First Notice Day)…maybe it is underway, maybe not, but regardless, I think producers should be targeting 3.70 in the nearby contract to sell.
  • Soybeans continue to outperform the corn and wheat markets.  There is not a lot of risk in the soybean market at this point, so if concerns start to grow in South America, we could see the market push to the upside.
  • Wheat bounced after making new lows earlier in the week.  There is not much to trade off of in the wheat here.

 

Fun Fact of the Day:  Bananas do not grow on trees. Rather, they grow from a root structure that produces an above ground stem. The plant is specifically classified as an arborescent (tree-like) perennial herb; in fact, it is the largest herbaceous flowering plant.

 

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