10/17/17

Morning Bullet Points - 10/17/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets pulling back overnight with soybeans under the most pressure on an improved weather outlook for parts of Brazil.
  • USDA crop progress yesterday showed corn harvest 28% complete vs. 47% on average.  Soybean harvest hit 49% vs. 60% average.  Winter wheat planting is 60% complete vs. 71% on average.
  • Soybean crush was a small disappointment yesterday at 136.4 mbu vs. expectations for 138.
  • South Korea tendered for a couple cargoes of corn, and a cargo of feed wheat.
  • China corn reserve auction failed to find any buyers.
  • Corn technically is back below 3.50 this morning and trading at the middle of the recent range.
  • Soybeans are correcting from overbought conditions with Nov. dropping into support in the 9.80’s.  A higher trend has been put in place.
  • Wheat continues to see sideways trade with support at 4.30 and resistance 4.45.
  • USDA reported 115,000 MT of corn to Mexico for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 146,000 MT soybeans to unknown for 2017/18.

WEATHER

  • Brazil chances for rains in dry northern areas improve over the next couple of weeks.
  • Argentina has better chances for rains later in the week, which will slow fieldwork.
  • US areas should dry out to allow harvest to pick up.
  • Overall, better chances for rain in dry spots of Brazil is the biggest development.

OUTLOOK

  • No major changes for corn, which is that nothing is overly bullish or bearish from here.  If corn is to go higher from here, it will be following the lead of soybeans while I don’t think there is much downside risk for the nearby contract under last week’s low ($3.41 ¾ fills the gap).
  • Soybeans had a strong push higher last week, and are retracing the move.  The weather in South America is a little more bearish, but there is a lot of growing season left down there.  For now, I think the current pullback can be viewed as a healthy correction.
  • Wheat is similar to corn in that it is lacking a reason to push out of this range.  Look for it to follow corn.

Fun Fact of the Day: The Panama Canal is not the only water line connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. There is a place in Wyoming—deep in the Teton Wilderness Area of the Bridger-Teton National Forest—in which a creek splits in two. Like the canal, this creek connects the two oceans dividing North America into two parts.

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