10/12/17

Morning Bullet Points - 10/12/2017

GOOD MORNING

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 

 

  • Markets trading mixed this morning in another quiet, pre-report trade.
  • Export sales delayed until tomorrow due to Columbus Day.
  • Report at 11:00am CST this morning.
  • Pre-report estimates:

 

 

2017/18 US Production

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

Corn Production

 

14.204

14.06-14.355

14.184

Corn Yield

 

170.1

168.7-171.5

169.9

Corn Acres

 

83.53

83.1-84

83.496

Bean Production

 

4.447

4.335-4.49

4.431

Bean Yield

 

50

49.1-52.1

49.9

Bean Acres

 

89.017

88.5-89.82

88.731

 

 

2017/18 US Ending Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

 

2.289

2.168-2.450

2.335

 

Soybean Stocks

 

447

375-500

475

 

Wheat Stocks

 

946

928-971

933

 

 

       

 

 

2017/18 World Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

 

201.91

196.7-204.5

202.47

 

Soybean Stocks

 

96.48

93.9-98

97.53

 

Wheat Stocks

 

262.8

258-265.4

263.14

 

 

  • China lowered their corn production estimate to 210 MMT (USDA 215 last month and will update today).
  • Corn traded to recent lows yesterday with support at 3.45 and a downside target the gap on the continuation chart near 3.40.
  • Soybeans pushed above moving average resistance overnight with major resistance at 9.80 and support at 9.60.
  • Wheat broke support early in the week with support at 4.30 and resistance 4.45.
  • USDA reported 120,000 MT of corn to Mexico for 2017/18.

WEATHER     

  • Center-West Brazil has some chances for rain this weekend, but after that is pretty dry until the end of the 6-10 period.
  • US harvest should ramp up with most of the Midwest dry until the 11-15 period.

OUTLOOK

  • Don’t look for anything too shocking on the corn report today.  US and world corn stocks are likely to be more than adequate to meet the demand for now.  They also will likely show a year-over-year drop in world production in spite of another big yield in the US.  For that reason, I don’t think prices are going to trade significantly lower than here for any extended amount of time.  On the flip side, unless the soybean market can get a rally going, corn probably doesn’t need to trade significantly higher than here either.
  • Soybeans continue to chop in the middle of their recent range with 9.80 resistance holding the market on the top end.  South America still has plenty of question marks on production this year without a lot of risk premium in the market currently.  There is strong demand at current price levels.  If the US bean yield comes in low today, we could see the start of a decent move to the upside.  If US production comes in high, I think there is downside risk to 9.30.  With the production that we have seen the last few years, it is pretty amazing that the world continues to use up most of it.
  • Wheat is going to have large US and world stocks again today.  Wheat is likely a follower.

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