10/4/17

Morning Bullet Points - 10/04/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mostly lower this morning in another quiet trade.
  • Cash markets continue to be under pressure as low water on the Mississippi is limiting barge movement at the same time harvest is in full swing.
  • Yield reports continue to suggest USDA’s yield forecast is not too far off.
  • Egypt bought Russian wheat yesterday.
  • China soybean buyers are balking on early US new crop soybean shipments due to quality concerns.
  • Corn technically testing support under 3.50.  There is a trend line drawn from the late August low that may provide support at current levels.  There is still the gap from where Sep. expired at 3.42.
  • Soybeans dropped to their lowest level since mid-Sep. yesterday.  There is a similar trend line that can be drawn for soybeans that means there could be some support here.
  • Wheat is oversold after its recent pullback with support near 4.40 and resistance at 4.46 and then 4.60.

WEATHER

  • Northwestern Brazil seen drying out until later in Oct., but recent rains bought some time.
  • Argentina is expected to get spotty showers, which will slow planting.
  • US has seen harvest slow in the WCB with those rains working ease.  The 6-10 and 11-15 should allow for harvest to move along.
  • Overall, nothing too significant with dryness in Brazil the thing to keep an eye on.

OUTLOOK

  • The stale news environment continues to make it a struggle to find market-moving news and talking points.
  • The longer-term corn trend is lower, so I think you have to go with it for now with downside targets in Dec. 17 at 3.42. 
  • Soybeans continue to trade within their recent range.  The weakness in the cash market makes me think there could be more downside in the near-term, but with not a lot of risk premium in the market going into the South American growing season, I don’t think there is much risk below 9.30.
  • Wheat continues to look the best relative to corn/beans.  The higher trend has started, and the market is oversold on the current pullback.  Look for buyers to step in on this dip.

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