10/3/17

Morning Bullet Points - 10/03/2017

GOOD MORNING—

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with corn/soybeans under pressure and wheat bouncing.
  • Crop progress yesterday showed soybean ratings steady and corn up 2, but at this point it truly does not matter.
  • FC Stone was out after the close with updated production estimates with national corn yield estimated at 169.2 bpa (166.9 last month) and bean yield 49.9 bpa (49.8 last month).
  • Informa is expected to release their updated production estimates today at 10:30am CST with the USDA out a week from today.
  • River freight continues to pressure basis around the country, but that story is getting some good coverage so maybe we are about to turn course?
  • Egypt is tendering for wheat again.
  • Corn technically is flirting with support at 3.50 again today.  With as many times as that level has been expected, an extended amount of time trading below there seems possible.  Next support is 3.42 and resistance 3.53.
  • Soybeans technically are still range bound.  Support at 9.55 and 9.30.  Resistance at 9.60.
  • Wheat dropped below moving average support at 4.46 yesterday, but is trying to recover above there this morning.  The market is getting to be oversold on the current pullback.  Resistance at 4.56.

WEATHER

  • North and west Brazil turn dry for the next week, at which point rains will need to return.
  • Argentina is expected to dry out to let planting pick up.
  • WCB harvest in the US has slowed due to rain.  The 6-10 and 11-15 periods are dry, which should lead to big harvest progress.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn is testing 3.50 again.  With wide spreads, weak basis, and harvest pressure, I think Dec. is going to test the level where Sep. expired near 3.42 before we can run higher.
  • Brazil weather has potential to turn dry again, which probably keeps that market range-bound, but harvest pressure in the US probably limits the upside in the near-term.
  • Wheat looks the best relative to corn and beans.  The market has had a healthy pullback and is a little oversold.  I think wheat can be bought here versus corn/beans.

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