9/26/17

Morning Bullet Points - 09/26/2017

GOOD MORNING—

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with the bean/wheat spreaders active again.
  • Crop progress yesterday was lacking of any major surprises with corn ratings steady and bean ratings up 1.  Harvest was a little behind expectations with corn 11% complete and soybeans 10%.
  • Weather viewed as better with dry Brazil expected to get rain and wet Argentina expected to dry out a bit.
  • Interior cash grain markets feeling some pressure as US corn/soybean harvest ramps up.
  • Quarterly stocks will be out Friday, which show Sep. 1 corn/soybean stocks at the highest levels in years.  Estimates will be out later this morning.
  • Corn technically continues to struggle to push above the 20 DMA, which is at 3.53 ½ today.  The trend is lower, but a push through that support would be viewed as supportive.  Support at 3.50.
  • Soybeans technically are at the middle of the year’s trading range with resistance at 9.80 and support at 9.62.
  • Wheat trending higher with support at 4.42 and resistance at 4.63.

WEATHER  

  • Brazil still seen catching needed rains over the next week.
  • Argentina is seen drier, which should allow planting to pick up.
  • Australia continues to be dry with wheat production expected to drop.
  • US winter wheat areas expected to catch some rain over the next few days.

OUTLOOK

  • No major changes in the outlook with corn yields continuing to exceed expectations.  The trend is lower until it is not.  The 20 DMA is a place to sell against.  Big carries suggest we may not have put in a harvest low yet. 
  • Soybeans pulled back to start the week.  Yields have been good.  The market has been making higher highs and higher lows since mid-August.  Nov. needs to hold above last week’s low of 9.58 ½.
  • Wheat looks pretty good technically as the seasonal where wheat gains on corn/soybeans working.  

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