9/20/17

Morning Bullet Points - 09/20/2017

GOOD MORNING—

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading higher this morning after a quiet, two-sided night trade.
  • Corn open interest up on yesterday’s weakness as funds continue to be willing sellers.
  • Harvest reports continue to slowly work their way into the market with most exceeding expectations.
  • Egypt bought Russian wheat yesterday.
  • Ukraine corn production is forecast at 27 MMT, which is down 1mmt from last year.  (USDA 27.5).
  • The FOMC will update their outlook for potential rate hikes over the next year.
  • Corn technically found some buying interest in the mid-3.40’s yesterday, which is where December corn has been able to bounce from previously.  There is still a downside gap to fill on the continuation chart near 3.40.  The trend is lower for now with the 20 DMA providing resistance at 3.53.
  • Soybeans technically remain within their range with overhead resistance at 9.80 and support below the market at 9.60.
  • Wheat technically found support at the 20 DMA yesterday and finished well off the low.  Support at 4.38 and resistance at 4.60.
  • USDA reported 960,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 120,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2018/19.
  • USDA reported 132,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2017/18.

WEATHER

  • Rains expected to slow harvest in the WCB in the next week.
  • South America has better chances of rains for Brazil in the 6-10 and 11-15 periods, which are expected to bring needed moisture ahead of planting.
  • Argentina is wet in the 6-10, which is expected to keep early seeding slow.

OUTLOOK

  • Most of the news was slow with early yield reports continuing to suggest the USDA may be right on with their yield forecasts?
  • Big daily sale for beans this morning could support the market for a bit.
  • Corn has dropped into the mid-3.40’s two times previously and didn’t spend much time down there either time.  I do not think I want to press the short side of corn too hard until we see what happens with the big soybean sale this morning.
  • Soybeans might get a boost this morning after the huge sale announced on the daily report.  Yields have been good enough, but clearly demand is strong at current prices.  I think we can push through 9.80 resistance this morning, but we need to hold above there to matter.
  • Wheat looks to have a bottom in place with world wheat prices finally gaining.  Look for wheat to work higher as long as corn is not working lower.

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