9/18/17

Morning Bullet Points - 09/18/2017

GOOD MORNING—

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading lower this morning after trading higher to start last night.
  • Early yield reports showing better than expected yields as harvest gets going in the ECB.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds as net sellers of 9,500 contracts of corn to push the net short to 119,000.  They were net buyers of 7,500 soybeans to reduce the net short to 4,400, and they were net buyers of 3,000 wheat to reduce the net short to 83,000.
  • Weather has above normal temperatures to help crops mature, but rains are expected to slow the start of harvest in the WCB.
  • US FSA acres suggesting more soybeans were planted than the 89.5 million the USDA is currently using.
  • Corn technically is in its downtrend with next downside objective for Dec. the level where Sep. expired, which was 3.41 ¾.  Resistance at 3.55.
  • Soybeans technically remain in their range with major overhead resistance at 9.80 and support at 9.60.
  • Wheat technically is looking more like the lower trend has ending with support at 4.20 and resistance 4.60.
  • USDA reported 261,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 126,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2017/18.

WEATHER

  • Rains seen working across the N. US in the next few days with a bigger system to hit the entire WCB in the 6-10.
  • Temperatures are forecast to run well above normal over the next two weeks, which will help crops catch up on maturity.
  • International weather has Brazil dry for 10 days before rains pick up.
  • Argentina is expected to see some rains to slow early planting.
  • Dry spots in Australia to catch some rain.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn traded higher early last night, but pulled back into the close this morning.  Early yields are beating expectations, which likely keeps some pressure on the corn.  It looks very likely to me that Dec. corn will drop to the level where Sep. expired.  Look for sellers to step in on rallies.
  • Soybeans are trading at the middle of their range, but if corn is heading lower due to better than expected yields, beans will probably struggle to add gains. 
  • Wheat has had a pretty good bounce off the lows, and the chart looks like it has turned higher.  However, if corn is headed lower as harvest ramps up, wheat may struggle to add value.
  • I think corn has problems until we get deeper into harvest, which probably limits upside in beans and wheat.

Want Updates?

Keep up with our market interpretation news and other important info. To receive text or email updates, simply click the button below and fill out the form.

Get Updates