9/12/17

Morning Bullet Points - 09/12/2017

GOOD MORNING

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed this morning in a quiet trade ahead of the USDA today at 11am CST.
  • Expectations:

 

 

2017/18 US Production

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

Corn Production

 

14.035

13.878-14.249

14.153

Corn Yield

 

168.2

166.7-170.9

169.5

Corn Acres

 

83.428

83.1-83.5

83.496

Bean Production

 

4.328

4.179-4.417

4.381

Bean Yield

 

48.8

47.1-49.8

49.4

Bean Acres

 

88.75

88.2-89.48

88.731

 

 

 

2016/17 US Ending Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

 

2.340

1.964-2.380

2.370

 

Soybean Stocks

 

370

331-477

370

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2016/17 World Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

 

227.99

225.1-229.1

228.61

 

Soybean Stocks

 

96.8

95.5-98

96.98

 

Wheat Stocks

 

258.57

25705-259

258.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017/18 US Ending Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

 

2.180

1.898-2.420

2.273

 

Soybean Stocks

 

442

375-524

475

 

Wheat Stocks

 

920

875-943

933

 

 

 

     

 

 

2017/18 World Stocks

Actual

Average

Range

Last Month

 

Corn Stocks

 

200.74

189.4-223

200.87

 

Soybean Stocks

 

97.39

95.2-99.5

97.8

 

Wheat Stocks

 

264.3

258-268

264.69

 

 

  • All eyes on the US production numbers.
  • Early yield reports are slow to come in, but so far, I would call yield reports as mixed.
  • Corn ratings were steady last night on the crop progress report with bean ratings down 1%.
  • Corn technically is seeing some consolidation near the 20 DMA with the longer-term trend still lower.  Support is at 3.55 and resistance 3.58.
  • Soybeans technically dropped below their 100 DMA yesterday at 9.60 and have consolidated near that level.  Support below is at 9.30 and resistance at 9.80.
  • Wheat pulled back further yesterday with Dec. Chicago expected to see support at 4.30 and resistance near 4.60.
  • USDA reported 132,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2017/18.

WEATHER

  • Rains seen moving across the N. Midwest the next couple of days.  The 6-10 has spotty showers, but then a more widespread event is seen during the 11-15 period.
  • Temperatures are expected to run above average for much of the next two weeks.
  • Overall, nothing too significant.

OUTLOOK

  • Do not look for the USDA to move their corn production number by much today.  Harvest is slow to ramp up due to the late crop, so I think we may continue to see consolidation until there is a better feel for the size of the crop.,
  • Soybeans have a weak seasonal trade from now through the end of September.  Technically the market hit resistance at 9.80 and has started to pullback.  Unless there is bullish news on the report today, a further pullback from recent highs seems possible.
  • Wheat continues to trade similarly to corn.  The wheat numbers will likely be bearish again, but we have already had a pretty good dip in futures price.

Want Updates?

Keep up with our market interpretation news and other important info. To receive text or email updates, simply click the button below and fill out the form.

Get Updates