9/8/17

Morning Bullet Points - 09/08/2017

HAPPY FRIDAY—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight, but mostly higher in a quiet trade.
  • Export sales out this morning for wheat 375,500 MT (350-550 expected), old crop corn -358,600 MT (0-250), new crop corn 1,480,000 (650-950), old crop soybeans -366,400 MT (-200-100), new crop soybeans 1,523,000 MT (700-1,000
  • A large amount of corn and soybeans were rolled to new crop sales, which is normal.
  • Average corn yield guess for Tuesday is 168.2 bpa (down 1.3 bpa from USDA last month).  Average soybean guess is 48.4 bpa (down .6 from USDA last month).
  • CFTC report this afternoon expected to show net selling in the corn while they were likely net buyers as of Tuesday in soybeans/wheat.
  • Russian wheat production revised higher again by Sovecon.
  • China continues to sell corn out of reserves.
  • Corn technically closed weak yesterday, posting a lower low and lower high.  The 20 DMA provided resistance near 3.60.  Support at 3.55.
  • Soybeans technically ran into resistance yesterday at the 50 DMA and settled below.  Support at 9.60 and resistance at 9.80.
  • Wheat technically pulled back yesterday as well with support near 4.30 and resistance 4.45.
  • USDA reported 264,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2017/18.
  • USDA reported 179,300 MT of corn to unknown for 2017/18.

 

WEATHER

  • Midwestern weather is drier on today’s models with not much rain expected until the 11-15 period.
  • Below normal temperatures seen the next few days, but then a pretty normal outlook is seen.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Yesterday was a weak close across the board in corn, soybeans, and wheat.
  • I still think a low was put in place for corn last week, but the market may pullback as we head into next week’s USDA report and to see what kind of buyers are resting below the market.
  • Soybeans finished weak yesterday as well, but continues to see consolidation in the current price area.  The next move in soybeans could be sizable with the early US yield reports the likely catalyst to start the move.
  • Wheat fell apart yesterday.  A low was likely put in place last week, but a further correction for recent highs is possible.

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