9/6/17

Morning Bullet Points - 09/06/2017

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading lower across the board overnight in a quiet trade.
  • Crop progress was lacking of any major surprises with corn ratings down 1% good-to-excellent and soybean ratings unchanged.
  • There were no reports of significant frosts overnight although some areas on the western edge of Nebraska and Northern Minnesota saw temperatures drop to freezing.
  • Stats Canada wheat stocks were 6.9 MMT, up from 5.2 MMT a year ago.
  • Stats Canada canola stocks were 1.3 MMT, down from 2.1 MMT a year ago.
  • Corn technically put in an inside day yesterday.  The market is a little overbought after the recent gains.  Support at 3.55 and resistance 3.60.
  • Soybeans technically surged higher yesterday with the market pushing through key moving averages.  Support for Nov. is at 9.60 and resistance 9.80.
  • Wheat technically closed weak and well off the highs yesterday.  The market is overbought, so a pullback seems possible.
  • USDA reported 253,300 MT of corn to Mexico for 2017/18 marketing year.

WEATHER

  • Dry weather seen for the next two weeks across the entire Midwest will allow crops to start drying down, but no good rains to help things finish out either.
  • Well below normal temperatures are seen for the Midwest through the 6-10 period before returning to normal in the 11-15.

OUTLOOK

  • Corn struggled to keep up with soybeans yesterday, but last week’s low is still looking like it could have been the seasonal low.  The funds are short, farmers probably sold enough to limit hedge pressure for the time being, and I think a lot were caught off guard by the rally last Thursday.  Look for buyers to support on pullbacks.
  • Soybeans surged yesterday and are starting to get into some resistance levels near 9.80.  There is still risk that the US soybean crop disappoints, but South American selling picked up on yesterday’s strength, which may slow the rally for now.
  • Wheat sold off hard late yesterday.  I think we may have seen enough of a bounce in wheat, so 10-15 cent pullback as the market catches its breath seems possible.

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